Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 September 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
September 9, 2010
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1105 (N19W90)
produced a long duration C3 x-ray event at 08/2333Z with an
associated west limb CME. Observations from the SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3
imagery indicates the CME is not earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (10-12 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a solar
wind speed enhancement to around 450 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on days one and two (10-11
September). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a slight chance for
an isolated active period, is expected for day three (12 September),
as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 074
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.