Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 105 (S08E54)
produced the largest event, an M2/2n flare at 09/1752 UTC.  This
event was accompanied by faint sympathetic flares from Regions 103
(N15W07) and 96 (S15W57), both of which also produced lesser C-class
flares earlier in the day.  Region 105 is the largest spot group on
the visible disk, exhibiting an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration and an areal coverage in excess of 1200 millionths.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for the next three days.  Region 105 is a
likely source of further M-class flare activity, and could also
produce an isolated major flare.  Region 103 is undergoing some
growth in size and complexity and could also be a source of M-class
activity during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods observed at higher latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field conditions
are expected to be quiet to active during the next three days.  An
evolving period of persistent southward Bz may produce isolated
active periods over the next several hours, while coronal hole
effects are expected to produce active conditions during the second
and third days of the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 206
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  210/220/225
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  008/008-012/015-012/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01