Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. New Region 1314 (N26E72)
was numbered today and produced a C1 flare at 09/1327Z. Region 1309
(N23W24) decayed slightly and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
group. All other regions on the disk remained relatively stable and
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (10-12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated active
period from 09/0300-0600Z due to solar sector boundary changes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on day one (10 October) due to effects from a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on days two and three (11-12 October) as effects from the
CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 121
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01