Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 1112
(S18E65) was numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a slight chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (10 – 12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (10 October). By day two (11
October), activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The increase
in activity is due to a small, geoeffective coronal hole high speed
stream coupled with glancing blow effects from the 06 October
full-halo CME. Day three (12 October) will see a return to mostly
quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 076
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 078/078/080
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/005-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/20
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/25
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01