Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (10 October). Actitivy is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 – 3 (11 –
12 October) due to weak recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 069
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01