Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1121 (S19E07) has showed some decay throughout the
period while remaining stable and quiet. Region 1121 did however,
produce a B3 X-ray flare at 09/1400Z. Region 1122 (N14W43) has also
remained stable and quiet. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (10-12 November).
There is a slight chance for an M-class event as Region 1121
progresses across the sun.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds measured by the ACE spacecraft decreased
from 370 – 310 km/s as the effects from a small coronal hole
high-speed stream wane.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10-12
November).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 084
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01