Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N10E22) continues to be the most complex and
most active spot region on the visible disk. It produced an M4/1n
x-ray flare at 09/1232Z, and an M1/1b x-ray flare at 09/1408Z. This
spot region continues to grow in area, reaching 1050 Millionths and
remains a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a slight chance for minor
storming on day one (10 May) due to increased wind speeds associated
with the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS). Days two and
three (11-12 May) are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as
the effects of the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 127
Predicted 10 May-12 May 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 09 May 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/022-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/10