Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Newly-numbered
Region 1210 (N20E08) produced occasional B-class flares and isolated
low-level C-class flares. Region 1210 was classified as a Dsi group
with a beta magnetic configuration. A C5 flare occurred at 09/2059Z,
associated with an event from beyond the northeast limb. New Region
1211 (S12W23) was numbered. It was classified as a Bxo group with a
simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (10 – 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (10 May)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to
disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected during days 2
– 3 (11 – 12 May) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 104
Predicted 10 May-12 May 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 09 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01