Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless. Region 1069 (N41W89) produced the only activity of the
period, a long duration, B1.3 x-ray event at 09/1541Z. A slow
moving CME (estimated velocity 225 km/s) was observed early in the
period lifting off the NW limb in the vicinity of Region 1069. The
CME did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance of C-class activity on day one (10 May)
from departing Region 1069. On days two and three (11 – 12 May),
solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities declined
steadily from 452 km/s to 375 km/s through the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during day one (10 May) of the forecast period.
The field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for isolated active conditions, on days two and three
(11 – 12 May) due to recurrent co-rotating interaction
regions/coronal hole high speed wind streams.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 075
Predicted 10 May-12 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 09 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/20
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01