Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 09 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A slow CME on the
northeast limb was first observed by SOHO C2 coronagraph at 0150Z.
Two class B1 flares were observed at 8/2127Z and 9/0133Z. These
flares were associated with activity on the northeast limb. No spots
were observed on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated period of
unsettled conditions was observed between 9/0900 and 1200Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled activity. No increase in geomagnetic activity is expected
from the CME mentioned in Part 1A.

III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 072
Predicted 10 May-12 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 09 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01