Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S20W95) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 09/0348Z as it neared the west limb. New Region 1234
(S16E59) produced a C1 flare at 09/1028Z. Region 1234 was classified
as a Bxo group with a simple bipolar structure. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to very low
through the period (10 – 12 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to active levels early on day 1
(10 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of
the halo-CME observed on 07 June. Activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during 11 – 12 June. There will be a
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous
orbit on day 1 due to the expected CME arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 50/25/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 088
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 30/20/05
Major-severe storm 20/10/01