Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1247 (S18W02) produced the largest event of the
period, a B4 x-ray event at 09/0028Z. A nearby filament eruption was
associated with this event with a subsequent partial-halo asymmetric
CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0125Z. This CME does
have an earth directed component. Region 1249 (S16E25) was numbered
early in the period but like many of the numbered regions on the
disk, has remained stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (10-12 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels of the past
24 hours. The elevated activity was due to a solar sector boundary
(SSB) crossing early in the period. Measurements by the ACE
spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing, from 350 km/s to
around 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(10-11 July) as a CH HSS continues to be geoeffective. On day three
(12 July), coupled with the arrival of another CH HSS, the CME,
observed earlier today, is expected to impact Earth. Since this CME
was only a partial-halo and is not traveling at great speed, only
unsettled to active levels are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 086
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 086/086/088
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 007/007-007/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/40
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01