Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1391 (N12W12), 1393
(N15W57), and 1395 (N22E45) produced low level C-class flares.
Possible umbral separation was observed in the leading spot of
Region 1391 and the trailing spot of Region 1393. Both regions have
Beta-Gamma magnetic classifications.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1391
and 1393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated around 420 – 440 km/s
with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 – 2 (10 – 11 January). A
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective
position on day 3 (12 January) causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 142
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 004/005-004/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/20