Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 Jan 2003
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 251 (S13E58)
produced an M1/1n event at 09/0537 UTC. Region 242 (S08W34) and 251
both continue to retain their beta gamma magnetic configuration.
Another region of interest is Region 247 (S17E34) which has shown
significant growth in area and spot count. It is currently at 340
millionths of white light coverage with 36 spots. A new region was
numbered today as Region 252 (S04E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 242, 247, and 251 are all capable of producing
an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on 10 January as a result of coronal hole activity.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Jan 183
- Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 185/190/195
- 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 006/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 010/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/30/20
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
