Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1153 (N15W88)
produced a M1/Sf flare at 09/0131Z after rapidly increasing in size
and magnetic complexity while nearing the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
on day 1 (10 February) with C-class flares likely and a slight
chance for another M-class flare. After Region 1153 moves around the
limb, solar activity is forecast to be very low to low with a chance
for a C-class flare on days 2 and 3 (11-12 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next 3 days (10-12
February).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 20/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 089
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 088/086/084
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01