Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 Feb 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W26)
produced a M1/Sn event at 08/2123Z. This region has shown a slight
decay today but continues to maintain its magnetic beta-gamma-delta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for a X-class event from Region
1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the
next three days (10-12 February). Activity is forecast due to the
recent CME activity from Region 1045. Late on 11 February into 12
February there is a slight chance for isolated periods of minor
levels due to the full halo CME observed on 06 February.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 50/30/20
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 091
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/009-010/011-012/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/40
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05