Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1374 (S17E54) produced
a C3 flare at 09/1320Z. Region 1374 had separation occurring within
the main spot. Growth was noted in Regions 1375 (N09E52) and 1372
(N08E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
at high latitudes occurring during the 09/1200-1500Z period. Solar
wind speed has remained relatively constant between 300 to 330 km/s
while the total magnetic field has increased from 3 nT to 8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on Day 1 (10 December). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for active periods on Day 2 (11 December) due to effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on day 3 (12 December).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 144
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/13/05
Minor storm 01/03/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 13/15/13
Major-severe storm 08/05/08