Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two B1 flares were
observed during the period. New Region 1096 (N19W16) was numbered
and was classified as a Bxo spot group with a beta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for a C-class flare from Region
1096.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period between 09/03-06Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (10 August)
due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on SOHO EIT on 07
August. This CME was associated with the M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z.
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August) due to
the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Quiet levels are expected on day three (12 August).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 083
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01