Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 Aug 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
August 9, 2009
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated the unsettled conditions observed during
09/0300 – 0900Z were associated with a period of sustained southward
IMF Bz (minimum -4 nT at 09/0300Z). Solar wind velocities ranged
from 408 – 481 km/sec during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels on day 1 (10 August) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
during days 2 – 3 (11 -12 August) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 067
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.