Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare was
observed from Region 1184 (N14W85) at 09/1545Z. Region 1185 (N18E15)
produced a B8/Sf flare at 09/0050Z. A partial-halo CME was observed
on SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0024Z, with a speed of approximately
275 km/s. Region 1185 (N18E15) showed an increase in spots. No
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (10-12
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at mid-latitudes and isolated minor storm levels at high
latitudes, for the next two days (10-11 April). The increase in
activity is due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is
expected to decrease to predominately quiet levels on day three (12
April). The partial-halo CME referenced in paragraph IA, is not
expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 105
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 100/095/100
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/25
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01