Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M1 flare
was observed at 08/1759Z and appeared to involve an interaction
between Region 1564 (S13W39) and Region 1562 (S21W77). Region 1564
ended the period as the largest on the visible disk, an Eai type
group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A coronal mass
ejection was observed off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 08/10Z. It appeared as a full halo in STEREO-A COR2
imagery. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance for an M-flare on days one and two (09-10
September), decreasing to a slight chance on day three (11
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels, with one
period of active conditions observed at high latitudes. The solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained near 400 km/s throughout
the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged from about +/- 5nT and earth remained in the positive sector.
A slow rise in high energy particles at ACE was observed beginning
around 09/11Z. This rise is believed to be associated with the CME
observed around 09/10Z in coronagraph imagery.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (09-11
September).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 129
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 125/115/110
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/007-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10