Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1309 (N22W11) produced
the lone C-class event at 08/0420Z. All of the regions on the disk
remained relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (09-11 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (09-10
October) due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (11 October)
as the effects from the CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 118
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01