Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A few B-class events were
observed originating on the east limb near S24 in the vicinity of
old returning Region 1106 (S22, L-217).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (09 – 11 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (09 – 10 October).
By day three (11 October), geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods
at high latitudes. The forecasted increase in activity is due to a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream coupled with a possible
glancing blow from the 06 October full-halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 075
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 076/078/078
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01