Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W07) remains a
fairly large sunspot group with some mixed polarity spots but has
only produced low-level C-class flares over the past 48 hours.
Growth in the region has ceased and little change in appearance was
noted since yesterday. New Region 145 (N12E76) is rotating onto the
disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The sustained southward IMF experienced over the past two days
appears to be coming to an end. For the past few hours Bz has
returned to +/- 5 nT variations.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active. Nighttime substorms are
possible.

III.  Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 165
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  165/165/170
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 180

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  021/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  015/015-015/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01