Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a
few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued
to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as
magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large
region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both
in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta
group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the
period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a
filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed
a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 – 11 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were
below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period
(09 – 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high
latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07
November CME are felt.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 181
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/13
Minor storm 02/02/03
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/16
Minor storm 13/13/20
Major-severe storm 08/08/14