Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N11E35) is the most complex region on the
visible disk, has grown to become a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration, and has an area of approximately 940 Millionths. It
also produced the largest flare, a M1/1f at 08/1308Z, as well as
several C-class flares. COR2 imagery from the STEREO-A spacecraft
indicated two weak Earth-directed CMEs that are not expected to have
significant impacts upon arrival.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (09 – 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May). Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May. Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 123
Predicted 09 May-11 May 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 08 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 009/012-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/25
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/35