Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low. Region 1203 (N18W55)
produced an isolated B-class flare. There were four spot groups on
the visible disk, none of which were magnetically complex, including
newly numbered Regions 1208 (N13E49) and 1209 (N35E08).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (09 – 11 May) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 May). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (10 May)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to
disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected on day 3 (11
May) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 102
Predicted 09 May-11 May 102/102/100
90 Day Mean 08 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/005-008/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/30
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/35
Minor storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01