Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1069
(N41W78) produced isolated C-class flares as it approached the west
limb. The largest of these was a C9/1f at 08/0459Z associated with
radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz. New Region 1071 (S20W42), a
small A-type spot, was numbered. No Earth-directed CME’s were
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
on day 1 (09 May) with a chance for isolated C-class flares from
Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to very low levels
during days 2 – 3 (10 – 11 May) due to the departure of Region 1069
early on 10 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated Earth remained within a gradually subsiding
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities decreased from
518 to 437 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (09 –
10 May) with a slight chance for active levels. Field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (11 May) with a
chance for active levels due a recurrent co-rotating interaction
region/coronal-hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 079
Predicted 09 May-11 May 077/075/075
90 Day Mean 08 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 007/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01