Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C7/Sf flare was observed
from Region 1428 (S17W19). Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification.
Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the
spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 – 11 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 –
1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March. A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 – 3 (10 – 11 March).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/99/70
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 140
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 033/064
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 017/027-007/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10