Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
1226 (S20W81) produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1226
continued to gradually decay as it approached the west limb and was
classified as a 1-spot Axx type. The remaining numbered regions were
inactive. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 – 11 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to
minor storm levels occurred during 07/2100 – 08/0600Z, associated
with elevated solar wind speeds combined with increased IMF Bt and
periods of southward IMF Bz. Mostly quiet conditions occurred after
08/0600Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
07/0820Z reached a maximum of 73 pfu at 07/1820Z and ended at
08/1710Z. The greater than 100 MeV event that began at 07/0735Z
reached a maximum of 4 pfu at 07/1025Z and ended at 08/0210Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (09 June) due to
the arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 07
June. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day 2 (10 June)
with a chance for minor to major storm levels as CME effects
persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (11 June) with a chance for active levels as CME
effects subside. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit on days 1 – 2 (09 – 10 June) due to
the arrival of the CME mentioned above.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 50/50/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 090
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 011/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 012/020-018/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/10