Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W76) produced
an M6/1n at 08/1632Z along with a 640 sfu Tenflare, Type II (est.
speed 2271 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME became
visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/1648Z. The majority of the ejecta
appears to be directed southwest but further analysis will be
conducted as imagery becomes available. Region 1520 (S15E42)
continued to grow to 1070 millionths and is considered an Fhc-type
group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The region produced
an M1/Sf at 08/0953Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(09-11 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The proton event that began at 07/0400Z and peaked at 07/0745
(25 pfu), ended at 07/2110Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
enhanced but below threshold at the time of this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (09 July). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (10 July), with a chance for
isolated active periods due to possible weak effects from the CME
observed on 06 July. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected
for day three (11 July).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 50/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 178
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 165/155/150
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-013/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10