Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. New Region 1247 (S18E11) emerged early in period and has
produced four C-class events, the largest being a C3/1N at 1331Z.
Region 1247 continued to grow throughout the period and remains the
most active region on the visible disk. Two other regions were
numbered today, Region 1246 (N14W47) and Region 1248 (N20E53), but
both have remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (09-11 July), as Region 1247 continues to grow and
evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have remained
at background levels, ranging from 330 km/s – 380 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day
one (09 July), as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS) moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on day two (10 July), as the effects of the CH HSS
continue. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three (11
July).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 086
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01