Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The SOHO/LASCO EIT
imagery observed a faint eruption along a filament channel
approaching the northwest limb. A CME was observed on the C2
imagery following this event around 08/1630Z. The CME is not
expected to be earth directed. Several B-class flares were observed
during the last 24 hours which are associated with a loop structured
region approaching the northeast limb (old Region 1083 N19, L=331).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels for day
one (09 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (10-11 July).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 074
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 076/078/078
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/006-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01