Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1393 (N16W45) continues to grow in both areal coverage
and magnetic complexity. The largest event of the period was a C4
x-ray event from around the east limb. A non Earth directed CME was
observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery around 08/0212Z. Region 1395
(N22E59) was numbered early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (09-11 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
indicate the continuing effects of a weak coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(09-11 January).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 136
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 004/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01