Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1139
(S29W87) produced a B2 flare at 08/0923Z as it approached the west
limb. Region 1140 (N33W36) showed no significant changes and
remained a C-type group with minor magnetic complexity. Region 1143
(S23E02) decayed to a B-type group with a simple bipolar magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 – 11 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 581 to 672 km/s during the period. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) intensity remained enhanced (peak 6 nT), while
IMF Bz was variable at -4 to +6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (09 –
10 January). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
on day 3 (11 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream
subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 085
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01