Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 8, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Jan 2003

SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 251 (S14E70)
produced an M4/0f event at 07/2333 UTC. This region is currently a
Dki beta gamma group with 11 spots. Regions 242 (S08W22) and 244
(S22W16) produced several low to mid-level C-class events. Region
242 continues to grow slightly in area and sunspot count and also
contains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk have the potential for
producing an M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the next three days.
Isolated active conditions are possible on 10 January due to
expected coronal hole effects.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Jan 174
  • Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 180/185/190
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/009
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/010-010/015-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.