Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 February 2012 Update

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 097
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/05
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/10
Minor storm 20/20/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01