Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1153 (N15W71) has shown continued growth and was
responsible for a majority of the activity this period, including a
C1/Sf event at 08/1854Z. Several new regions were numbered today,
Region 1154 (N08W51), Region 1155 (N17E26), Region 1156 (S19E43),
and Region 1157 (N22E36). These regions all emerged early in the
period and contain simple magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next two days (09-10 February) as Region 1153
rotates off the west limb. Very low to low levels are expected on
day three (11 February) as the remaining regions on the disk
continue to evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(09-10 February) as a weak coronal hole high-speed stream moves into
a geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day
three (11 February).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 090
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 090/090/088
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01