Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Feb 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
February 8, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 08 2208 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17)
produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. STEREO and
SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three
events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated
Tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both
white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic
beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional Tenflares
observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045
events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at
08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare. A new region was numbered today
as Region 1047 (S15E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a
X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at
mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (09-11 February). These
conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 094
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 096/096/094
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/009-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 02/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.