Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few low level C-class flares
occurred early in the period from a region not yet around the east
limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (9-11 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days 1-2 (9-10 December) before increasing
to unsettled and active conditions on day 3 (11 December) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 145
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/50
Minor storm 01/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/01