Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Dec 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 214(N13W70) produced a C2 flare at 08/0825 UTC. Region 212 (N14W05) has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration due to weak polarity mixing. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 216 (S24W39), Region 217 (N12E56), and Region 218 (S20E68) IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 212 and Region 214 are likely to produce C-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind velocities remain elevated near 600 km/s and Bz continues to be predominantly positive. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects are expected through day one of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may exceed event threshold on day two and three of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Dec 154 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 008/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 012/015-010/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/00/00 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/05tÀ Major-severe storm 01/01/01
