Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1185
(N20E14) produced a B7/Sf flare at 08/1824Z. Region 1185 was
redefined to detach two separate spot groups: Region 1185 and new
Region 1189 (N23E11). Region 1185 is now configured as a Cso group
with a beta magnetic configuration with 14 spots. New Region 1189
was numbered as a Dso group with a beta magnetic configuration with
6 spots. Region 1188 (S25W06) was numbered as a Cro group with a
beta magnetic configuration with 3 spots. Region 1187 (S18E50)
increased to a Cso group with 4 spots. Region 1183 (N14, L=140)
rotated off the limb. A back-sided full-halo CME was observed on
SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 07/2342Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (09-11 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active levels at
high latitudes on day one (09 April). Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected, with isolated active levels at mid latitudes and minor
storm levels at high latitudes, on days two and three (10-11 April).
The increase in activity is due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 109
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 100/095/100
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05