Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Sep 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1105 (N19W77)
produced a B4/Sf flare on 07/0528Z. An 11 degree filament near
N11E19 disappeared between 07/1359-1439Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event on days one and
two (08-09 September). Solar activity is expected to be very low on
day three (10 September) as Region 1105 (N19W77) rotates off the
visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active
period occurred between 07/0900-1200Z. Solar wind velocity, as
measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated an increase to
approximately 500 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for isolated active periods during days one and two (08-09
September), due to enhanced solar wind velocity. Day three (10
September) is expected to be quiet as the solar wind speed is
forecast to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 076
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01