Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1313 (S16E39) produced a
C1/Sf at 07/0121Z. Region 1305 (N11W91) continued to produce C-class
activity as it rotated around the west limb. All of the other
regions on the disk remained relatively stable during the past 24
hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days
(08-10 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (08 October). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10
October) due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 122
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01