Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. The
visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through most of the period (08 – 10
October). However, there is a slight chance for unsettled conditions
late on day 3 (10 October) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 069
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01