Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only low to mid-level C-class
activity was observed from both Regions 1338 (S13W12) and 1339
(N18E05). Both regions exhibited some growth in area and spot count
with Region 1338 developing a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (08 – 10 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or higher) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speeds ranged between 300 to 375 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (08 – 10 November).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 182
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 180/180/180
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01