Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1121 (S18E36)
produced a C5/1F at 07/0141Z. Region 1121 was classified as an Esi
spot group, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions
were numbered. A small, faint earth-directed CME was observed on
both STEREO A and B coronagraph imagery, beginning at 07/0410Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, on days one and two (08-09 November).
Quiet levels are expected on day three (10 November). Further
analysis will be required to determine if the CME observed earlier
will be geoeffective. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10
MeV proton event from Region 1121.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 085
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 087/090/090
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 007/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/09/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/03/01