Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 Nov 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N18W36) is in decay phase, but produced a C7/Sf flare at 06/2316Z. Region 180 (S10W14) continues to grow and now maintains three different delta configurations in a spot group nearing 600 millionths of areal coverage. Despite its size and apparent complexity, this region has been relatively quiet, producing only occasional C-class flares. New region 190 (S22E54) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 180 and 177 have potential to produce M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed stream flow is declining, following peak speeds that exceeded 600 km/s. The sustained southward IMF Bz that persisted for the past few days also appears to have ended. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit have again reached high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods during local nighttime hours. We are expecting to transition back into a high speed stream on day three as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Nov 190 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/010-008/010-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/40 Minor storm 10/10/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/50 Minor storm 15/10/30 Major-severe storm 05/05/15
