Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1203 (N17W41)
and Region 1204 (N17W27) are the only remaining active spotted
regions. All other regions have decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (08-10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with isolate unsettled
conditions late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (08-09 May).
Day three is expected to be quiet to unsettled for most of the day,
with a chance for an isolated active period late in the day. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a coronal hole high speed
stream (CH-HSS) becoming geo-effective. The co-rotating interactive
region associated with this CH-HSS is expected to arrive between
10/1800Z-11/0600Z and maintains the possibility of causing isolated
minor storm conditions especially at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 102
Predicted 08 May-10 May 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 07 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01