Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 May 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
May 9, 2010
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1069 (N42W67) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 07/0742Z as well as isolated low-level B-class
flares. Region 1069 continued to gradually decay, but maintained a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration through most of the period. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 – 2 (08 – 09 May) with a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (10 May) as Region 1069 rotates out of
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence
of a subsiding coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
gradually decreased from 565 to 448 km/sec during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels during most of the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (08 –
09 May) with a chance for active levels in response to recent CME
activity. Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
levels on day 3 (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 10/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 079
Predicted 08 May-10 May 078/076/075
90 Day Mean 07 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 010/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.